Janet Daley is an opinion writer, a commentator for the UK Telegraph. I featured her column in “Old World America” last week. If you haven’t read that one yet, do. The follow-on column below is darker and sadder, and reading last weeks article first will make this one more comprehensible. Janet’s on a roll. I know how she feels right now, I think, on several levels.
Level one, as a writer. There are times when I write a weeks worth of posts in two days. The words flow; it’s not a struggle. Ideas and notions and data all blend together fluidly. Other times, nothing for days at a time. And one thing I’ve learned is you can’t force writing. Don’t let anyone tell you writing is an intellectual exercise. One doesn’t “learn” to write. All one can learn to do is let one’s inner life flow through one’s fingers, into the keyboard. Unless one is writing propaganda, writing is therapy. I think this essay below is a Janet Daley therapy session.
Not everyone should write, of course. Anyone who can watch the grinding decimation of European and American economic and political life that has been inflicted by the implementation of the modern welfare state and not be in need of therapy is irretrievably among the walking dead. They have no inner life (are you listening, Krugman?) and should never put pen to paper.
Level two, as a pragmatist. A very good friend once quite correctly referred to me as a literary whore; he said I would indiscriminately read anything. There’s truth in that, but this is a family blog so I transmuted his observation into the motto in my banner above; Home for a literary gypsy. I’ve read a lot: the Torah, Koran and Bible; Marx and Hayek; Hoffer and Skinner; Trotsky and Hamilton, Jefferson and Engels. Across the board. I don’t think many people do that anymore, though. Gypsy whores are apparently a dying breed.
The world is increasingly full of ideologically pure people. By the term “ideologically pure” I mean they are religiously committed to this or that impenetrably solid, unquestionably true system of thought. They talk only to themselves and to others of their ideological clan; conversations in an echo chamber. They read only that which confirms them; assures them they are correct, and just as importantly assures them that those who disagree are either deluded, brainwashed, corrupt or simply stupid. Many don’t know why they believe what they believe, simply believing because they’ve always believed. I read in the media and hear in real life the same question over and over from these monolithic minds: how can you not believe what I believe when it’s so obviously right? It’s a struggle to fend off this tsunami of “truth”.
Level three: as a <small d> democrat. As I noted above, watching the economic and political damage accrue … watching vital, fecund, expansive economies in robust, solvent, politically agile nations diminish and fade, corroding into ever more autocratic, crippled wrecks … is very painful. There’s a sense that in the scramble to redistribute material goods and money, nations have forgotten to redistribute rights, responsibilities and political power as well. As wealth is forcibly distributed ever more widely, power is forcibly consolidated ever more narrowly.
Janet’s in pain, as I am, and for the same reasons. That anguish is evident is this cri de coeur below.
We’re heading for economic dictatorshipThe whole of the West is falling into the economic black hole of permanent no-growth
By Janet Daley
9:00PM GMT 17 Nov 2012
Forget about that dead parrot of a question – should we join the eurozone? The eurozone has officially joined us in a newly emerging international organisation: we are all now members of the Permanent No-growth Club. And the United States has just re-elected a president who seems determined to sign up too. No government in what used to be called “the free world” seems prepared to take the steps that can stop this inexorable decline. They are all busily telling their electorates that austerity is for other people (France), or that the piddling attempts they have made at it will solve the problem (Britain), or that taxing “the rich” will make it unnecessary for government to cut back its own spending (America).
So here we all are. Like us, the member nations of the European single currency have embarked on their very own double (or is it triple?) dip recession. This is the future: the long, meandering “zig-zag” recovery to which the politicians and heads of central banks allude is just a euphemism for the end of economic life as we have known it.
Now there are some people for whom this will not sound like bad news. Many on the Left will finally have got the economy of their dreams – or, rather, the one they have always believed in. At last, we will be living with that fixed, unchanging pie which must be divided up “fairly” if social justice is to be achieved. Instead of a dynamic, growing pot of wealth and ever-increasing resources, which can enable larger and larger proportions of the population to become prosperous without taking anything away from any other group, there will indeed be an absolute limit on the amount of capital circulating within the society.
The only decisions to be made will involve how that given, unalterable sum is to be shared out – and those judgments will, of course, have to be made by the state since there will be no dynamic economic force outside of government to enter the equation. Wealth distribution will be the principal – virtually the only – significant function of political life. Is this Left-wing heaven?
Well, not quite. The total absence of economic growth would mean that the limitations on that distribution would be so severe as to require draconian legal enforcement: rationing, limits on the amount of currency that can be taken abroad, import restrictions and the kinds of penalties for economic crimes (undercutting, or “black market” selling practices) which have been unknown in the West since the end of the Second World War.
In this dystopian future there would have to be permanent austerity programmes. This would not only mean cutting government spending, which is what “austerity” means now, but the real kind: genuine falls in the standard of living of most working people, caused not just by frozen wages and the collapse in the value of savings (due to repeated bouts of money-printing), but also by the shortages of goods that will result from lack of investment and business expansion, not to mention the absence of cheaper goods from abroad due to import controls.
And it is not just day-to-day life that would be affected by the absence of growth in the economy. In the longer term, we can say good-bye to the technological innovations which have been spurred by competitive entrepreneurial activity, the medical advances funded by investment which an expanding economy can afford, and most poignantly perhaps, the social mobility that is made possible by increasing the reach of prosperity so that it includes ever-growing numbers of people. In short, almost everything we have come to understand as progress. Farewell to all that. But this is not the end of it. When the economy of a country is dead, and its political life is consumed by artificial mechanisms of forced distribution, its wealth does not remain static: it actually contracts and diminishes in value. If capital cannot grow – if there is no possibility of it growing – it becomes worthless in international exchange. This is what happened to the currencies of the Eastern bloc: they became phoney constructs with no value outside their own closed, recycled system.
When Germany was reunified, the Western half, in an act of almost superhuman political goodwill, arbitrarily declared the currency of the Eastern half to be equal in value to that of its own hugely successful one. The exercise nearly bankrupted the country, so great was the disparity between the vital, expanding Deutschemark and the risibly meaningless Ostmark which, like the Soviet ruble, had no economic legitimacy in the outside world.
At least then, there was a thriving West that could rescue the peoples of the East from the endless poverty of economies that were forbidden to grow by ideological edict. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be of the whole of the West, America included, falling into the economic black hole of permanent no-growth. Presumably, it will eventually have to move towards precisely the social and political structures that the East employed. As the fixed pot of national wealth loses ever more value, and resources shrink, the measures to enforce “fair” distribution must become more totalitarian: there will have to be confiscatory taxation on assets and property, collectivisation of the production of goods, and directed labour.
Democratic socialism with its “soft redistribution” and exponential growth of government spending will have paved the way for the hard redistribution of diminished resources under economic dictatorship. You think this sounds fanciful? It is just the logical conclusion of what will seem like enlightened social policy in a zero-growth society where hardship will need to be minimised by rigorously enforced equality. Then what? The rioting we see now in Italy and Greece – countries that had to have their democratic governments surgically removed in order to impose the uniform levels of poverty that are made necessary by dead economies – will spread throughout the West, and have to be contained by hard-fisted governments with or without democratic mandates. Political parties of all complexions talk of “balanced solutions”, which they think will sound more politically palatable than drastic cuts in public spending: tax rises on “the better-off” (the only people in a position to create real wealth) are put on the moral scale alongside “welfare cuts” on the unproductive.
This is not even a recipe for standing still: tax rises prevent growth and job creation, as well as reducing tax revenue. It is a formula for permanent decline in the private sector and endless austerity in the public one. But reduced government spending accompanied by tax cuts (particularly on employment – what the Americans call “payroll taxes”) could stimulate the growth of new wealth and begin a recovery. Most politicians on the Right understand this. They have about five minutes left to make the argument for it.